I’ve started looking for liquid tokens in the bear market. It feels like a good time to pay attention, dig a bit deeper, and look for businesses where the market may be missing what is actually happening under the hood.

EtherFi is one of those names for me.

It’s a platform I know well and has become one of my most used DeFi protocols. I even wrote about putting my own business onto EtherFi rails, which you can read here.

But this time I wanted to look at EtherFi from a different angle. Not just as a product I use, but as a business.

How fast is it actually growing? Where is the revenue coming from? How profitable could it become? And most importantly, is there a real case for ETHFI the token?

The last part there is important because a business can be great, but the token only matters if value actually accrues back to token holders.

I personally hold a small allocation in ETHFI and have been wondering if I should dramatically size up the position.

So this is my attempt to break down EtherFi’s business, the growth of Cash, the role of Liquid and Stake, and whether ETHFI could be mispriced if the team can solve the token rights question.

The part I find most interesting is that EtherFi may not be valued correctly if people are still thinking about it as mostly a staking protocol. If Cash keeps scaling and the full stack continues to work, I think the better comp set might be closer to frontier fintechs and neobanks like Revolut than just another staking business.

EtherFi looks a lot different than it did a year ago.

For a long time, the easy way to think about EtherFi was as a liquid staking protocol. That was the main product, the main source of revenue, and the simplest way to explain the company. But this is now a totally outdated model.

The better way to think about EtherFi is as an integrated crypto financial stack across Cash, Liquid, and Stake. Or as everyone likes to call this nowadays: A Neobank.

Cash gets users into the ecosystem. Liquid gives those users a place to deposit capital and earn yield. Stake underpins a lot of the ETH native economics and still gives the business exposure to ETH price and ETH denominated TVL.

So I don’t think this is just “staking protocol revenue is down, but Cash is up.” The more interesting version is that Cash can become the front door into the broader EtherFi stack. Users come in through the card, deposit into vaults, borrow, spend, earn, and keep more of their financial life inside the product.

That is a very valuable business if it works. And it looks like it’s started working very well this past year.

The biggest change is the revenue mix.

In the April analyst deck, EtherFi said Cash had already surpassed staking revenue and was greater than roughly 50% of protocol revenue. That is a pretty big shift for a company that most people still probably associate with staking first.

The same deck showed the following Cash KPIs as of the end of April:

For simplicity’s sake, here’s what this looks like broken out:

Since then, the spend number has continued to move higher. The updated dashboard data I’ve seen shows cumulative spend around $559M.

Also check out the growth trajectory. The daily spend numbers are up and to the right:

So this is not a case where Cash had a strong quarter and then stalled. At least based on the dashboard data, the product appears to be scaling nicely even since the April analyst deck (all within a bear market 👀).

The big point for me is that Cash is not just another product line. It can be the user acquisition layer for the whole EtherFi stack.

I don't think the right way to look at EtherFi is to split Cash, Liquid, and Stake into three separate buckets. They are separate products, but the whole point is how they feed each other.

Once a user comes in through Cash, that deposit doesn't have to leave. It can move into Liquid to earn yield, sit against a borrow, or back the ETH economics on the Stake side. Each product makes the next one more valuable. Cash is worth more when there are good vaults to deposit into, and the vaults are worth more when Cash keeps bringing fresh users and capital in. That reinforcement is the actual asset here, not any single product line. The whole flow becomes very sticky once users start depositing to vaults and using the card.

The April analyst deck lays out the revenue loop pretty clearly:

We also talked in depth about the business of EtherFi with founder Mike Silagadze on our podcast:

The 2026 projection, which I'll get into more later, has Cash doing roughly $37.3M of revenue. The main Cash loop as I see it is spend volume, interchange, card fees, borrow interest, and payments, plus the way Cash can feed deposits back into Liquid and Stake. That is why I care more about the full system than any one revenue line.

But a valuable system only matters for the token if that value actually reaches ETHFI. So before I get into valuations and financials, it is worth being clear about what you are holding when you hold ETHFI today.

EtherFi has a real business, real revenue, and real profit projections. But there is also still an equity cap table, which makes the token question more complicated.

If I buy ETHFI, am I getting direct exposure to the economics of the business, or am I mostly buying governance plus the possibility of future buybacks or stronger value accrual? Are my rights as a token holder going to be at odds with the equity side of the business? What if EtherFi goes public and the equity holders win and the token holders lose?

Basically, can my ETHFI be rugged?

Knowing the founders, I’m not personally worried that ETHFI token holders get left behind here. But I’ve had the privilege of knowing the team for years and many others don’t. So I get why the market is not just going to accept “trust me bro” as the answer.

This is the part that still needs to be clarified. The business can be valuable, but ETHFI only captures that value if the token has a clear economic claim on some part of that value. And in my view, this is probably the biggest reason ETHFI trades at a discount to what the business could be worth.

The good news is Mike told me directly that clearing this up is one of the team’s top priorities. So I am not really worried that the team is ignoring it.

I’m personally quite confident that they understand how important this is for ETHFI.

A cleaner structure could do a few important things. It could reduce the token discount, clarify how business profits accrue to ETHFI, turn buybacks back on in a more repeatable way, and help investors value ETHFI more like ownership in the business rather than just a token with unclear future rights.

This also lines up with the ARK section in the April deck. Their framework focuses on transparent financials, governance, value accrual, liquidity, security, and whether token value is tied to real revenue rather than just speculation. That is the right lens for ETHFI.

The question is not just whether EtherFi is growing. The question is whether ETHFI becomes the clean way to own the economics of that growth.

With that caveat in mind, let’s look at the financials.

Quick note before getting into the numbers: the next few sections are based on EtherFi’s own 2026 projections. Obviously, projections are projections, so I’m not treating them as guaranteed.

That said, this information is also pretty scarce. EtherFi does not have years of public financials sitting around like a public company, so the analyst deck is one of the better sources I have for how the team is thinking about the business.

The good news is that EtherFi’s 2026 revenue estimates also seem to be tracking pretty closely with DeFiLlama’s annualized revenue numbers, so I think they are at least a reasonable starting point for the analysis.

The 2026 projection shows EtherFi doing roughly:

One note on the profit number: part of it was previously labeled as a foundation contribution, but my understanding is that this money is not currently being used for token buybacks. So for now, I think it is cleaner to treat it as profit that stays inside the business.

That said, roughly $5.9M of this could eventually matter for ETHFI if EtherFi formalizes a buyback program or clearer ownership rights for the token. I just would not assume that happens until it is actually laid out.

For now, I'd treat the business as projected to generate around $13.8M of what I'll call adjusted profit throughout this piece. All I mean by that is the profit number with the foundation contribution left in, since that money stays inside the business instead of being paid out. A portion of it could become available for buybacks later if the token structure gets clarified.

On $61.5M of revenue, that implies:

For a crypto business still early in its Cash rollout, those are good numbers. It is not just revenue growth. The projections imply real operating leverage as Cash scales.

Quick thing before the numbers. Every comp below is equity in a business, and ETHFI is a token that, like I said earlier, doesn't have a clean claim on EtherFi's economics yet. So these tell me what the business might be worth, not automatically what the token is worth.

The way I'd read it: what is the business worth on fintech and neobank comps, then how much of that actually reaches the token. That second part is the open question, and it's the discount. If token rights get clarified, the gap should close. Until then, treat everything below as a business number first.

DCF GOD is right. EtherFi is priced less than a lot of their private company comps. I wouldn’t say “at a fraction” though.

So let’s look at a few public and private fintech comps, then I’ll apply a bit of discount for where EtherFi is today.

There is no perfect “neobank average” because fintech multiples vary a lot depending on the model. Lending heavy digital banks, payments companies, brokerages, crypto platforms, and financial superapps all trade differently. A profitable consumer finance app with strong growth and daily engagement can trade very differently from the more lending heavy businesses.

So I’d use a small comp set rather than try to fit a clean industry multiple:

This gives a pretty wide range. On revenue, the comps span roughly 3.5x to 18.8x, with the middle of the range around 9x to 10x. On profit, the comps are mostly in the 20x to 50x range.

I want to keep this a bit more conservative so I won’t slap a full Revolut or Robinhood multiple on EtherFi today, but I also don’t think those are out of reach by any means. EtherFi is earlier and the token structure still needs to be clarified, but the business is also growing in a much more interesting way than most crypto protocols. Cash is scaling quickly, Liquid adds a vault layer, and Stake keeps the business tied to ETH native revenue. If those pieces keep coming together, I think it is fair to at least start looking at EtherFi through a frontier neobank lens.

For now, I came up with this:

Using 2026 full year projected revenue of $61.5M:

On a profit basis it is a similar story. 20x to 40x on $13.8M of adjusted profit gets you roughly $275M to $550M, which lines up with the lower half of the revenue range.

The full year numbers get me to a rough business value range of $500M to $900M if the projections are credible.

The current FDV of ETHFI has been oscillating between $300m and $350m and sitting at $333m as I type this:

If you break out the data from the image above, ETHFI is trading around:

At a roughly $333M FDV, ETHFI trades at:

That is still closer to the low end of the fintech comp range than the high end.

To me, ETHFI looks undervalued on these numbers. Maybe the market is discounting it because token rights still need to be clarified. Maybe people still think of EtherFi as mostly a staking protocol. Maybe the market just has not caught up to what Cash is becoming.

Whatever the reason, I do not think ETHFI is priced like a clean claim on a $500M to $900M fintech style business today.

To keep the math simple:

This is the part that makes ETHFI interesting to me.

At a $333M FDV, I do not think ETHFI needs some heroic valuation case to get interesting.

If EtherFi is worth $500M, that is already meaningful upside from here. If the business is worth something closer to $750M to $1B, then the setup starts to look a lot more interesting.

So the question is not whether EtherFi can become a massive multi billion dollar company overnight. The question is whether the business keeps growing, margins hold, and ETHFI captures enough of that value.

Cash has really only been live for a little over a year, so there is still not a ton of data to work with here. But that is also what makes the Q4 question interesting. If the current pace keeps up, Q4 could give us a better sense of what EtherFi looks like heading into 2027.

And yes, I realize I am annualizing a pretty fugazi Q4 projection here.

But the deck came out in April, and Cash has kept growing rapidly since then. So I would not treat the Q4 number as guaranteed, but I also do not think it is silly to ask what the business could look like by the end of 2026 if the pace holds. Honestly, with the way things are trending, it is very possible they beat these projections. I would not build the whole thesis around that, but I am not leaving it off the table either.

Based on the projections, Q4 looks roughly like:

Annualized, that works out to:

This is where the valuation math starts to look a lot more interesting.

Using Q4 annualized revenue of roughly $108.5M:

On a profit basis it is the same ballpark. 20x to 30x on $38M of annualized adjusted profit lands around $760M to $1.14B, with 25x getting you to roughly $950M.

At today's roughly $333M FDV, ETHFI is trading at about 3.1x Q4 annualized revenue and 8.8x Q4 annualized adjusted profit.

I would not automatically apply those Q4 multiples today. EtherFi still has to prove the run rate, and ETHFI still needs clearer economic rights. But if Q4 starts looking like the base heading into 2027, the range moves up meaningfully. At 10x Q4 annualized revenue, EtherFi would be worth roughly $1.1B. The higher end is where it gets interesting: at 12.5x to 15x, you are looking at roughly $1.36B to $1.63B. That is the more bullish version, but it is not ridiculous if Cash keeps scaling, margins hold, and the market starts valuing EtherFi like a frontier neobank.

For the upside case, I think Revolut is the cleanest comp.

Revolut is obviously way bigger today. It is doing billions in revenue, has tens of millions of users, and is much further along as a business. But that is kind of the point. Revolut shows what a scaled financial app can be worth when growth, profitability, daily usage, and a broad product suite all come together.

EtherFi is much earlier, and that is exactly why I find it interesting. The Cash spend growth I showed earlier is happening fast off a small base, up roughly 35% in about six weeks. So I do not think Revolut should be treated as a hard ceiling. If EtherFi keeps growing faster off that smaller base, it is not crazy to think the market eventually gives it a richer multiple.

Revolut's latest disclosed numbers are roughly:

At a $75B valuation, that puts Revolut at roughly:

I already walked through the revenue multiples on the Q4 run rate above, so I won't re-table them here. The piece Revolut actually adds is the profit side. At Revolut's roughly 44x net profit multiple, EtherFi's $38M of Q4 annualized adjusted profit implies around $1.68B. That is the top of everything in this analysis, and I'm putting it down as a higher end reference to keep in mind, not a target.

That is why I care about this comp. I am not saying EtherFi is Revolut today. It obviously is not. But if EtherFi is becoming a crypto neobank, with faster early growth and real profit potential, then a Revolut style multiple is not out of reach. It is a useful reference to keep in mind.

Just to be clear, there's no buyback baked into any of this. The $13.8M adjusted profit stays in the business for now. It's not capital that's already making its way back to holders.

From a first principles standpoint, I think the ownership side needs to be solved before buybacks become the main event. You need to know what ETHFI actually owns or controls before you can really judge how valuable future buybacks are. In other words, the foundation of the house needs to be built right before you start decorating the interior.

Longer term, buybacks could become an important value accrual mechanism, especially if ETHFI gets clearer economic rights. But I do not think buybacks are the main thesis today.

The stronger version of the thesis is that Cash scales, Liquid retains more user capital, ETH linked revenue has upside, profits grow, token rights get clarified, and then buybacks become a real capital return mechanism.

On the full year 2026 numbers, the absolute buyback capacity is still modest. But if EtherFi exits 2026 near the Q4 run rate, 2027 could start looking much more meaningful.

So I would treat buybacks as the eventual mechanism, not the reason to own the token today. The reason to care today is that the business may be getting more valuable while the token structure may also get cleaner.

There are really only a handful of things I care about from here, and they happen to be the same things that make or break the bull case.

Cash spend needs to keep growing. The spend trend I showed earlier is the most encouraging data point I have, and I want to see it hold rather than stall out. So far, it looks incredible.

The take rate needs to hold or improve. The deck says Cash revenue is getting a boost from a higher interchange take rate, which is a big deal, but it is still early. I have no way of tracking this as this is an internal number, but hopefully they keep updating us in the analyst presentations.

Liquid needs to keep growing. This is where I'll be watching deposits and vault TVL, since that is where Cash actually gets monetized. As a user myself, its the liquid vaults that add another layer of stickiness to the whole loop.

Margins need to hold. The projected 55% gross margin and 22% net margin are attractive, but Cash is young and costs could rise as it scales.

ETH price is still part of the equation. These projections assume $2,000 ETH, so a move higher gives the Stake and Liquid sides more room to beat the base case. If ETH keeps underperforming, that could pull the numbers lower.

That said, I am putting more weight on Cash in this analysis. Stake, Liquid, and Cash all play a role, but Cash is the anchor for me because it is the user facing growth engine and the part of the business that most changes how EtherFi should be valued.

One more thing I'm keeping a loose eye on is trading. From what I understand, EtherFi is looking at adding in app trading which I believe would be routed through a Hyperliquid builder code front end. If it ships, it's another revenue line that fits the neobank thesis, since the front end earns a cut of every trade it routes. I'm not underwriting any of it yet. It's early and I haven't seen a hard confirmation. But it's the kind of optionality that makes the Cash funnel more valuable if it happens.

And then the big one for ETHFI specifically: token rights, which I covered earlier. It is the single largest unlock for the token and the catalyst I'm watching most closely. Once that is clarified and excess cash isn't needed for growth, buybacks could come back into play.

So what is it actually worth?

On the 2026 projections, I think you can make a credible case that EtherFi’s business could support a $500M to $900M valuation range if ETHFI captures enough of the economics. Against today’s roughly $333M FDV, that would be about 1.5x to 2.7x from here. And that is the version where the projections just hold up and a few things keep trending the right way. I do not need a heroic story to get there.

The more interesting version is if Q4 turns out to be the real run rate heading into 2027. If Cash keeps compounding, margins hold, and the market starts treating EtherFi like a frontier neobank instead of a staking protocol, you can start making the case for something closer to $1.1B to $1.6B. That is not my base case, and I am not going to pretend the Q4 annualization isn't aggressive. But it is also not crazy if the current pace keeps up.

The part that interests me most is that the business looks like it is getting more valuable at the same time the token structure looks like it might be getting cleaner. That’s a great combination. Also, I really think the market has missed how much this business has changed in the last year and how fast it is growing. Somehow, it’s still under the radar, which is exactly the type of setup you need to look for.

None of this is a guarantee, and none of it is financial advice. The thesis still rests on execution and on the team actually clarifying token rights. But if you are asking me whether ETHFI looks mispriced at these levels, my honest answer is yes.

If you skipped to the bottom, here's where I land:

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