What Is The "Smart Money" Doing?

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Lately, inPlanB has been sharing lots of smart money flows from his Nansen subscription and its been quite good at identifying some major price moves before they fully happen.

For example, he was way out in front of this recent Flock (FLOCK) runup and was calling it out days before it really started to pop. Smart money flows were showing accumulation. Check out the price action on this over the last few days:

To further drive this point home, check out the FLOCK price when tracking with smart money traders below:

You can see the smart money balance (yellow line), rising ahead of the token price (grey line).

Now it’s no guarantee that this will always be a forward indicator, but in this instance if you were paying attention to the massive rise in smart money balances you could have been a bit ahead of a lot of this move.

I used Nansen a lot last cycle, but haven’t had a personal subscription for a long time (that could change) and had forgotten how helpful looking at these onchain smart money flows could be.

The following is a writeup by inPlanB on what he’s seeing recently using 24HR, 7D and 30D flows.

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Disclaimer - These are merely observations and none of this should be construed as financial advice

Smart Money Flows (Ethereum, Arbitrum, Base)

Looking at smart money activity across 24H, 7D and 30D timeframes reveals fascinating behavioral patterns that teach us how sophisticated traders operate in different market conditions. Real insights emerge when we understand how these pieces connect.

First off, here’s what the 24H, 7D and 30D data looks like:

Making Interpretations From Smart Money Flows

(you can refer to the charts above as we walk through these interpretations below)

The Most Compelling Pattern: LINK's Consistent Smart Money Magnetism

The most interesting pattern across all timeframes centers on Chainlink (LINK) and it demonstrates what sustained smart money conviction looks like in practice. In the 24H data, LINK shows $5.00K in net flows, but when we extend to 7D, we see $1.65M in net flows with 9 active smart traders. Most tellingly, the 30D view reveals $1.58M in net flows with an impressive 36.92% smart money balance increase across 30 traders.

This progression tells a compelling story. The explosive growth from 9 smart traders over 7D to 30 traders over 30D suggests that LINK is experiencing what I call "smart money network effects" - where initial smart money activity attracts additional traders. The consistent positive balance changes across all timeframes indicate this isn't short-term speculation but strategic accumulation.

The Distribution vs Accumulation Dichotomy: ENA as a Case Study

Ethena (ENA) presents a fascinating counterpoint that illustrates the importance of examining flows versus balance changes. ENA shows substantial net flows across all visible timeframes - $375.98K in 24H and $925.72K over 7D - but notice the negative balance changes: -6.87% daily and -4.81% weekly.

This pattern reveals active distribution rather than accumulation. High flows combined with declining balances suggests smart money is systematically reducing positions, possibly taking profits or rotating capital elsewhere. The increasing number of traders from 3 to 8 between the 24H and 7D periods indicates this distribution is becoming broad-based rather than concentrated among a few wallets.

The Conviction Plays: MORPHO and CFG's Remarkable Accumulation

When we examine the 7D and 30D data, Morpho (MORPHO) and Centrifuge (CFG) emerge as particularly intriguing conviction plays. Both tokens show what I call "quiet accumulation" - a relatively modest numbers of traders (MORPHO grows from 1 to 5 traders, CFG remains at 1), but massive balance increases.

MORPHO demonstrates +28.22% balance change over 7D period and expanding to +35.07% over 30D, while CFG shows +30.67% on 7D growing to +37.19% on 30D. These patterns suggest deep-pocketed smart money participants are building substantial positions without creating significant market noise. 

Signal Of Base's Network Activities: FLAY

ƒlaunch (FLAY) represents one of the most instructive examples of how smart money operates across different timeframes, as it demonstrates high activities on the Base network with new token launches.

In the 24H timeframe, smart money has decreased their holdings by -21.87%. This suggests smart money was reducing positions in the immediate term. However, when we extend to 7D, we see a complete reversal: +15.42% balance change with $46.25K in flows from 5 traders.

The most striking pattern emerges in the 30D view, where FLAY shows an extraordinary +193% balance change with $119.91K in flows from 13 smart traders. 

Reading the Broader Strategic Picture

LINK shows steady accumulation, growing up to $1.58M in flows with expanding smart money participation. MORPHO demonstrates concentrated accumulation with 5 smart money.

These patterns collectively suggest that smart money is currently in an accumulation phase across multiple tokens, but with varying degrees of conviction and different entry strategies. The fact that we see negative balance changes in the 24H data for several tokens, followed by positive longer-term accumulation, suggests that smart money is using short-term volatility as entry opportunities for longer-term positions.

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