Before we begin, please note that this is not financial advice. This framework is intended solely as a guide, offering data-based insights to help inform your decisions. Also, thanks to Bitcoin Magazine for providing all of this great data!

Summary

What’s in this?

• Indicators

  • BTC.D

  • MVRV Z-Score

  • Pi Cycle Top

  • Everything Indicator

• Macro

  • Rate Cuts

  • Plotting Ten Late-Cycle Indicators

  • ISM

• Conclusion

By November 2025, I’ll have been writing “Navigating The Cycle” for a year, and nothing in the data suggests we’re anywhere near a top.

It’s kind of felt like that movie Groundhog Day (amazing movie btw):

I’m going to keep this opening short and get right into the data (article starts after sponsors below)

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Bitcoin Dominance

What Is This Indicator?

Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) is an indicator used to understand Bitcoin's market share relative to other cryptocurrencies and is shown as a %.

How Do We Use it?

• Rising Dominance:

  • This can signal that capital is flowing into Bitcoin from other cryptocurrencies, possibly due to Bitcoin's perceived stability or market events favoring Bitcoin. It might precede or accompany bearish conditions for altcoins.

• Falling Dominance:

  • Suggests capital might be moving from Bitcoin into altcoins, which could indicate a bullish trend for altcoins or a lack of confidence in Bitcoin's near-term performance.

As you can see from the two charts above, BTC.D topped almost exactly to the day of our July 4th report.

Our Current Interpretation

• BTC.D has fallen quite a bit since our last piece from 65.4% to 58.49% today

• We have a very small sample but BTC.D has bottomed around ~35% to 40% range in previous cycles and topped around the ~70% - 73% range last cycle.

• Last cycle, after BTC.D topped, we had a ~10 month alt season until BTC.D bottomed (fwiw, I don’t think we have alt seasons like we’ve had in the past going forward)

Check out what we wrote in our last article on July 4th in this BTC.D section (ETH was at $2485):

Btw, just for fun I’m going to make a bit of a bold prediction that BTC.D bottoms at around 42% this time (it was ~35% in 2018 and ~38.5% in 2022). I’ll take it one step further and say it happens in Q3 of 2026 (most likely July or August).

MVRV Z-Score

What Is This Indicator?

The MVRV Z-Score chart helps identify when Bitcoin is highly over or undervalued compared to its 'fair value' using three metrics:

1. Market Value (black line): The current Bitcoin price multiplied by the total coins in circulation, similar to market cap in traditional finance.

2. Realised Value (blue line): Calculates the average price of each Bitcoin based on its last movement between wallets, providing a long-term valuation by filtering out short-term market sentiment.

3. Z-Score (orange line): A standard deviation measure highlighting extreme differences between Market Value and Realized Value.

How Do We Use it?

The MVRV Z-score effectively highlights periods when Bitcoin’s market value significantly exceeds its realised value, marked by the Z-score (orange line) entering the pink zone, which often indicates market cycle tops—accurately identifying cycle highs within two weeks.

It also signals when market value is well below realised value, shown by the Z-score entering the green zone. Historically, buying during these times has yielded substantial returns.

Attempting To Predict Bitcoin Price Using MVRV Z-Score

The MVRV Z-Score chart helps predict Bitcoin price extremes, signaling potential pullbacks when the Z-score reaches the upper red band and possible rallies after time in the lower green band. Historically, it has identified major price peaks within two weeks.

Our Current Interpretation

• The orange line (z-score) is currently at 2.01 (this was 2.43 when I wrote this in July)

• In every other bull market, the orange line (z-score) has breached 7

• Interpretation: By this metric, Bitcoin is still nowhere near what would be considered frothy overvalued territory and if this metric remains accurate, it’s likely that this cycle has a lot more room to run.

Pi Cycle Top Indicator

What Is This Indicator?

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator has been highly accurate in identifying Bitcoin market cycle highs within three days. It combines the 111-day moving average (111DMA) with a 2x multiple of the 350-day moving average (350DMA x 2).

For the last three cycles, Bitcoin’s price peaked when the 111DMA crossed above the 350DMA x 2, illustrating Bitcoin's cyclical price behavior. Interestingly, dividing 350 by 111 yields 3.153, very close to Pi (3.142), highlighting a unique mathematical pattern.

How Do We Use It?

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator forecasts Bitcoin’s market cycle peaks, predicting when the price will reach a top before declining. It operates on high time frames and has accurately identified the absolute tops of Bitcoin’s major price movements throughout its history.

Attempting to Predict An Overheated Market Using Pi Cycle Top Indicator

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator signals when the market is extremely overheated—when the 111-day moving average reaches a 2x multiple of the 350-day moving average. Historically, this has been a beneficial time to sell during Bitcoin’s price cycles.

However, since this indicator has been effective primarily during Bitcoin’s early adoption phase, it may become less relevant as Bitcoin ETFs launch and Bitcoin integrates further into the global financial system.

Our Current Interpretation

• The 111DMA and 350DMA x 2 are relatively far apart

• In previous bull markets, this indicator has shown a high degree of accuracy at calling potential tops when these two lines meet.

• Interpretation: Currently these two lines are widely separated and we will be monitoring them closely going forward. If this indicator remains accurate, it would appear as though the market is still not in overheated territory.

Everything Indicator

What Is This Indicator?

The Bitcoin Everything Indicator consolidates multiple metrics into one score to provide a comprehensive market overview. The result is a reactive, historically reliable oscillator that identifies market peaks and bottoms for Bitcoin.

It combines the following critical inputs:

• Market Profitability: MVRV Z-Score

• External Macro Supply: Global M2 Money Supply

• Miner Profitability: Puell Multiple

• Onchain Profit Taking: Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR)

• Volatility Trends: Crosby Ratio

• Relative Network Growth: Active Address Sentiment Indicator (AASI)

Our Current Interpretation

• This indicator is sitting at 37.57 (This was 44.85 when I wrote this in July)

• This is the lowest it has been since June 2025

• You want to think of taking profits at or before the red band (85) and consider buying at or below the green band (15)

• We’re currently somewhere in the middle

• Interpretation: Nothing appears to be overheated and this indicator would suggest we’re not close to a market peak.

Macro

Rate Cuts

The FED made their first 0.25 point cut of 2025. There’s currently two more 0.25 cuts expected for the remainder of 2025.

It’s looking like Powell will be slow and cautious with cuts until his time is up on May 15, 2026.

From what I’m seeing, the FED will start to lose some independence with Trump pushing more appointees into the mix in order to carry out a government growth mandate.

This could be setting up for more aggressive cuts in Q2/Q3 of 2026 (post Powell) which might provide a continued catalyst in the market for risk assets. However, it will be interesting to see if inflation rears back in that environment.

Plotting Ten Late-Cycle Indicators

This post by Julien Bittel really sets the tone for where we are from a macro standpoint using data (if you want the full post its right here and worth a read):

Julien took all of these inputs above and put them into this chart below:

One other interesting thing to not is how Julien ended his long X post I referenced up above:

ISM

Let’s see what things look like when we single out just the ISM from Julien’s piece above.

First of all, what is The ISM?

ISM (Institute for Supply Management) surveys, mainly the ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Services PMI, are widely used as leading macroeconomic indicators because they give early signals on the health of the economy.

ISM as a Macro Indicator

• Direction of economy: ISM PMI above 50 = growth, below 50 = contraction.

• Leading signal: Captures shifts in demand, employment, supply chains before GDP and jobs data.

• Key sub-indexes: New orders (demand), employment (jobs), prices paid (inflation).

• Market impact: Bonds (yields up on strong ISM), stocks (cyclicals move), USD (strengthens on strong ISM).

• GDP link: Strong correlation with GDP growth, often converted into implied growth rates.

• Cycle marker: Below 45–47 often signals recession, rebounds above 50 suggest recovery.

OK here’s another one from Julien where he overlays the ISM to Bitcoin Implied ISM Pricing:

Conclusion

BTC.D

Current Level: 58.49% (65.4% back in July)

Area Of Caution: Below 52%

Potential Cycle Top: Below 42 - 43%

MVRV Z-Score

Current Level: 2.01 (2.43 last update in July)

Area Of Caution: Anything above 5

Highly Overvalued: 7+

Pi Cycle Top Indicator

Current: Widely Separated

Area Of Caution: Lines Becoming Close

Overheated: Lines Touch/Cross

Everything Indicator

Current: 37.57 (44.85 last update in July)

Area Of Caution: 75

Highly Overheated: 85+

At this point, I think there’s a high probability that the typical 4 year cycle is broken and this will be the beginning of a deviation from the norm.

Everything about this cycle just feels elongated as compared to previous ones.

Raoul Pal is also calling for this as well and backing it up with data:

In this piece, we covered 10+ macro indicators that show no signs of overheating, along with 4 crypto specific indicators that suggest we’re nowhere near a top or even a late cycle stage.

I’ve been writing this article for almost a year without once calling a top, and I still see no reason to start now.

If I were to sum all this up into way less words than I’ve used here, this is pretty spot on to how I’m feeling (and I usually rarely agree with this account):

Thanks for reading!

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